![]() Flood risk management requires long-term planning. Not only does the characterization of these historical models as ‘present-day’ gradually become more indefensible over time, they are also instantly outdated if they fail to account for any of the ~1 ☌ temperature rise already experienced during the industrial era, particularly in recent decades 8. Typical models used for regulatory or commercial applications use historical observations (such as rainfall, river flows or coastal water levels) as their driving input. The resultant coastal flooding may be further exacerbated by the low atmospheric pressure and high winds of storms, which themselves may intensify in the future 7.įlood hazard models simulate the physical characteristics of the inundation response to such flood drivers to identify potential flood risks. Equally, these sources agree that rising temperatures, leading to oceanic thermal expansion and ice mass loss, induce a rise in global sea levels 5, 6. Simple physical reasoning, complex physical modelling and the recent observational record all suggest that a warming climate is intensifying the hydrological cycle, making extreme precipitation-and thus potentially inland flooding-more severe 1, 2, 3, 4. Be it enforcing regulations within flood zones defined using historical water-level records, modelling the cost–benefit ratio of mitigatory actions on the basis of historical flood probabilities, or not considering future risk when permitting new development, ubiquitous flood risk management tools fail to recognize that the nature of floods is changing. The present means by which flood risk is managed globally is predicated on the assumption that history is a good predictor of the future. These results make clear the need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the United States, with mitigation required to prevent the acceleration of these risks. ![]() Furthermore, projected population change (SSP2) could cause flood risk increases that outweigh the impact of climate change fourfold. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. ![]() Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |